Dual-market access must mean access

The European Union’s proposed “Made in Europe” rules are intended to answer a real strategic problem. Europe has become too dependent upon imported technologies, critical components and carbon-intensive materials while asking its own manufacturers to meet higher environmental and labour standards. Using public procurement, auctions and subsidy schemes to build domestic industrial capacity is therefore understandable.

It is also capable of producing unintended consequences. Britain is no longer an EU member, but it remains woven into European manufacturing, defence and energy supply chains. Northern Ireland is more deeply entangled still: it is part of the United Kingdom’s customs territory while continuing to apply significant EU rules for goods under the Windsor Framework. If policy is reduced to a test of whether a product is simply “EU” or “non-EU”, Northern Ireland could discover that its much-advertised dual-market access does not automatically amount to equal access to European public contracts and support schemes.

A proposal, not a settled rule

The European Commission’s Industrial Accelerator Act, proposed in March, would introduce low-carbon and Union-origin requirements in selected strategic sectors. A separate Public Procurement Act proposal, adopted by the Commission in September, would make “Made in Europe” criteria part of a wider reform of procurement. These are proposals, not settled law. Their final wording must still be agreed by the European Parliament and the Council, and important questions about third-country treatment remain open.

That distinction matters. British businesses should prepare for possible change, but ministers should not present every negotiating possibility as an accomplished agreement. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said this week that Britain and the EU were “finding a way through” the problem. Reporting suggests that some EU governments may be willing to treat Britain as a trusted partner, potentially in return for closer alignment on trade measures against China. Neither the scope nor the price of such an arrangement is yet established.

The UK–EU summit on 20 November is therefore more than another opportunity for warmer language. Energy cooperation, an agrifood agreement, climate policy and law-enforcement cooperation are already on the agenda. The Government says an energy deal could reduce Northern Ireland’s wholesale energy costs by 20 per cent. That is a significant claim, but one which will ultimately need to be tested against the detail of any agreement, implementation timetable and the extent to which lower wholesale costs reach consumers.

Made in Europe should now be added to that same discipline of measurable outcomes.

Dual-market access has limits

Northern Ireland’s position deserves explicit treatment rather than an assumption that the Windsor Framework will somehow resolve every difficulty. The framework gives Northern Ireland access to the EU single market for goods; it does not make Northern Ireland part of the EU, nor does it place the region inside the single market for services. Existing access to public procurement also rests upon separate UK–EU and international commitments. Compliance with EU product rules and eligibility under a future origin-based procurement preference are related questions, but they are not necessarily the same question.

That creates both risk and opportunity. A Northern Ireland manufacturer using local, British and Irish inputs could meet EU technical standards yet still face uncertainty over whether its product contains sufficient Union-origin content. A Great Britain supplier might then become less attractive to a Northern Ireland firm seeking to qualify for an EU-supported project. Conversely, a carefully negotiated trusted-partner arrangement could strengthen Northern Ireland as a location from which businesses serve both the UK and European markets.

The correct response is not to oppose Europe’s attempt to secure its industrial base. The United Kingdom has its own interest in resilient supply chains, cleaner production and protection from unfairly subsidised imports. Nor should Britain accept automatic alignment with every EU trade measure simply to obtain an exemption. A common approach to economic security may be sensible, but it requires evidence about costs, benefits and the consequences for consumers and relations with other trading partners.

What the Government should secure

Before the summit, the UK Government should publish a Northern Ireland assessment covering the Industrial Accelerator Act and the proposed Public Procurement Act. It should identify which sectors, contracts and supply chains are most exposed; distinguish technical compliance from procurement eligibility; and explain how goods containing both UK and EU inputs would be treated.

The Government should then seek three concrete outcomes. First, any trusted-partner provision should apply across the United Kingdom and expressly address qualifying Northern Ireland goods. Second, the negotiating text should protect integrated supply chains across Great Britain, Northern Ireland and Ireland rather than reward the relocation of production merely to satisfy an origin threshold. Third, Northern Ireland departments and business representatives should have a formal route into negotiations and subsequent guidance, with changes communicated before firms make investment decisions.

There is a wider lesson. “Dual-market access” is a valuable proposition, but it is not a policy in itself. Its value depends upon how new rules on origin, subsidy, procurement, carbon and standards interact in practice. The greater the geopolitical pressure for Europe to become more self-reliant, the more important it is that Northern Ireland’s unusual position is understood in Brussels and defended in London.

The November summit should not be judged by the warmth of its declaration. It should be judged by whether businesses can tell, with confidence, where they may sell, bid and invest. Northern Ireland cannot afford to be the collateral damage of a policy aimed at somebody else.

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