Under FOI please provide any internal briefing documents or policies prepared to inform staff, elected members or the general public on the potential impact of the developing El Nino on future service delivery or wider socio-economic impacts.
Met Office seminar — 11 June 2026
Northern Ireland’s Changing Climate — Key Learning Points
The session provided clear evidence that Northern Ireland is already experiencing the impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures, sea-level rise, and an increase in both heavy rainfall events and overall severe weather.
Presenters highlighted that historical weather records are becoming less reliable for predicting future conditions, as extreme events are increasingly exceeding what were previously considered “1-in-100-year” thresholds.
Observed climate trends
- Global temperature rise of approximately 1.39°C above pre-industrial levels.
- An increase in annual rainfall in Northern Ireland of around 10%.
- Winter rainfall showing the most significant increase.
Future projections and risks
Future projections indicate a continuation and intensification of these trends, with expectations of wetter winters and springs, more intense rainfall events, and a growing likelihood of flooding, heat stress and wildfire risk.
In higher warming scenarios, extreme rainfall events could become up to four times more likely, while wildfire risk could increase by up to five times.
These findings reinforce the need to base resilience, infrastructure planning and emergency preparedness on forward-looking climate scenarios rather than historical data, particularly as risks are expected to escalate further if global warming exceeds 2°C.
Agriculture and food security
The agricultural sector is identified as both highly exposed and potentially adaptive, with climate variability expected to have a greater impact than changes in average conditions alone.
UK agricultural yield shocks may increase in magnitude by around 50%, with implications for livestock welfare, crop production and food security.
While risks are increasing, there may also be opportunities for diversification and new crop types in a warmer climate, provided appropriate adaptation measures are implemented.
Overall, the presentations emphasised the importance of proactive, scenario-based adaptation across all sectors, including infrastructure, emergency planning and agriculture.
Potential influence of El Niño
The discussion also noted the potential influence of the anticipated El Niño event which presenters advised could be particularly strong and potentially record breaking. It will likely contribute to a warmer, wetter autumn and subsequent winter variability.
Potential Areas for Further Work
- Explore a research project on farming methods and climate adaptation in Bavaria, Germany, as Northern Ireland’s future summer climate is projected to resemble present-day Bavarian conditions.
- The Met Office has delivered a simulation exercise for DfI Rivers, and FODC should consider requesting a similar exercise for local partners to test preparedness against the most relevant future climate and severe weather risks for Fermanagh and Omagh.
Cicero's Voice 